CURRENT AFFAIRS
CURRENT AFFAIRS
Description
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recently confirmed a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean, following the conclusion of a brief and mild La Nina phase. This shift marks a critical development for meteorologists and climate experts, as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences global climate and weather behavior.
Understanding ENSO Phases
ENSO has three key phases:
El Nino: Characterized by above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific.
La Nina: Marked by below-average SSTs in the same region.
Neutral: Occurs when SSTs are near the long-term average and neither El Nino nor La Nina is dominant. Neutral conditions often act as a transitional phase between the two extremes.
Present ENSO-Neutral Status (As of April 2025)
Recent measurements show SSTs in the Nino-3.4 region hovering close to normal levels, with a reading of -0.01°C—well above the La Nina threshold of -0.5°C. The rise in ocean temperatures is attributed to the westward spread of warmer waters and a decline in cooler subsurface currents.
Atmospheric Circulation During Neutral Phases
Under ENSO-neutral conditions, surface air pressure tends to be higher in the central Pacific than in the west. This imbalance generates wind patterns that flow from east to west, influencing oceanic surface currents and atmospheric behavior across the globe.
Effects On Marine Life And Weather Patterns
Neutral phases are beneficial for marine ecosystems, especially along the South American coast, as they promote upwelling—the process by which cold, nutrient-rich waters rise to the surface. This supports fisheries and aquaculture. At the same time, cooler SSTs in the eastern Pacific often lead to drier weather in coastal regions.
ENSO Forecast And Outlook
Projections suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist through the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, with a greater than 50% probability of continuing into autumn 2025. Beyond that, forecasts become more uncertain:
43% chance of neutral conditions lasting into early winter
38% chance of a La Nina return
Less than 20% likelihood of El Nino development
A Look Back At Recent La Nina
The recent La Nina event was relatively weak and short-lived. It fell short of NOAA’s formal classification criteria, which require five consecutive overlapping three-month periods of sustained cooling in the Pacific. Despite this, the event may be recorded in updated historical climate averages due to its influence on seasonal weather trends.
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